Valuing 200 Million Bitcoins | Converting to USD

Why the tape matters—and what to do

Example

Suppose you decide to convert 100 million bitcoins at a rate of $40,000 per bitcoin on a reputable exchange platform. After deducting any transaction fees (let's say 1%), you would end up with approximately $3.96 billion in USD.

Question

What are some common reasons for choosing not to convert all my bitcoins at once?

To avoid significant market impact and lock-in losses due to price drops after large-scale selling, many prefer gradual conversion strategies.

Risk management you can actually use

• Risk per trade = account equity × risk% (e.g., 1%).
• Position size = risk per trade ÷ (entry − stop).
• Expectancy (E) = win_rate × avg_win − (1−win_rate) × avg_loss.
• Cap total portfolio risk; journal every trade.

A quick example

Account $10,000, risk 1% → $100 risk per trade. Entry $50, stop $48 → $2 risk/share → 50 shares. Target $54 (2R). If stopped, −$100; if target hits, +$200 (before costs).

How much capital do I need to start?

Use an amount you can afford to lose while learning a repeatable process.

How do I size positions?

Decide a fixed risk % per trade, then divide by the price distance to your stop.

How often should I review?

Match your timeframe: DAIly/weekly for swing; weekly/monthly for long-term.

What goes into my journal?

Thesis, entry/exit, risk (R), emotions, result, next improvement.

Sources & Signals (add before publish)

• Earnings or guidance: …
• MaCRO data or policy: …
• Sector flows: …
• Unusual volume/price action: …